The next hurricane

Forecasters expect Atlantic season’s 21st named storm will be hurricane The Associated Press Updated: 8:40 a.m. ET Oct. 18, 2005 MIAMI - Tropical Storm Wilma stalled over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean early Tuesday and forecasters said it could strengthen into a hurricane before potentially menacing Florida this weekend. Wilma entered the history books Monday, becoming the Atlantic hurricane season’s 21st named storm before dawn, tying the record set in 1933 and exhausting the list of storm names. Forecasters said it could strengthen into the year’s 12th hurricane on Tuesday and become a Category 3 hurricane with wind exceeding 111 mph by Wednesday. Twelve would tie the record for the most Atlantic hurricanes in a years, set in 1969. “Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea,” which has warm water and favorable wind currents, said Lixion Avila, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. At 8 a.m. ET, Wilma’s top sustained wind speed was about 70 mph, unchanged since three hours earlier. At 74 mph, Wilma will be upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. Meteorologists said Wilma was nearly stationary over the northwest Caribbean Sea about 245 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, but it was expected to gradually move toward the west and northwest. Turn towards Florida possibleNew forecast models placed the storm closer to western Cuba than Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. The storm was forecast to then turn sharply in the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida during the weekend. “There’s no scenario now that takes it toward Louisiana or Mississippi, but that could change,” said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Conditions such as warm water and favorable atmospheric winds are in place for Wilma to strengthen, possibly into a major hurricane with winds above 110 mph. “If it goes through the Yucatan Channel, there won’t be much to weaken it,” Mayfield said. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin warned residents Monday to prepare for another evacuation if Wilma strengthened and moved toward the city. The Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Dennis, while Emily hit Mexico. A hurricane watch remained in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a tropical storm warning was posted there and for the coast of Honduras. Two to 6 inches of rain is likely in the Caymans, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, Honduras and Jamaica, with up to 12 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said. Battered coastThe Gulf Coast was already battered this year by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Dennis, while Emily hit Mexico. Since 1995, the Atlantic has been in a period of higher hurricane activity. Scientists say the cause of the increase is a rise in ocean temperatures and a decrease in the amount of disruptive vertical wind shear that rips hurricanes apart. Some researchers argue that global warming fueled by man’s generation of greenhouse gases is the culprit. Forecasters at the hurricane center say the busy seasons are part of a natural cycle that can last for at least 20 years, and sometimes up to 40 or 50. They say the conditions are similar to those when the Atlantic was last in a period of high activity in the 1950s and 60s. It’s difficult to know whether the Atlantic was even busier at any time before record keeping began. And satellites have only been tracking tropical weather since the 1960s, so some storms that just stayed at sea or hit unpopulated areas before then could have escaped notice. The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; there are 21 names on the yearly list because the letters q, u, x, y and z are skipped. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with Alpha. That has never happened in roughly 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms. “We’ve got six weeks to go, so a lot of things can happen,” Mayfield said. © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9710472/